Spanish Olives: What’s Happening To The (Tastier) Building Blocks for a Global Market of Olive Oil

The world is changing, and it is changing fast. Sometimes humanity can outrun its self-inflicted perils, but only once we see the dangerous consequences of our actions. We can see the effects of climate change everywhere in the world. As I write this, on February 17th, 2023, I read that just yesterday, southern Rhode Island recorded the “second-earliest 70-degree day… following the 70-degree reading on January 2020.” Further, “...the temperature reached 61F as of 8:55 AM, breaking the old record high for the day…” set over 110 years ago (Doris, 2023). 

As I write this article over 3,400 miles away in Madrid, Spain, similar records have been set. Two summers ago, Spain recorded its “new provisional heat record,” reaching 47.2 degrees Celsius, or 116.96 degrees Fahrenheit (Associated Press, 2021). Before that, the record was set just four years prior at 116.42 degrees in Córdoba. We can see from these statistics that there has been a yearly trend of increased temperatures. Although a 61-degree morning in February feels like a gift from the Heavens that should be worshiped as a lovely day, it is imperative to be conscious of why it is abnormally warm and what it means for the future. In nearly 117-degree heat, as one can imagine, the streets are scarce of human traffic, which is beginning to prove detrimental to one of Spain's most important economic sectors: tourism. As climate change brings rising temperatures to all of Earth’s corners, it is vital that we educate ourselves on what this means for certain portions of the economy that rely on rainfall, sunshine, tourism, and everything in between. 

While climate change affects everyone and everywhere, its effects manifest in various ways (Associated Press, 2021). Despite the adverse effects of climate change on Spain’s economy, many current practices in Spain heavily contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, most notably those in the veins of production and use of energy, agriculture, stockbreeding and industrial activity (Labandeira, 2021). The Spanish economy, however, would crumble without the aforementioned activities;  the question then shifts away from what is being done to how it’s being done. As a consequence of our actions, we arrive at a crossroads begging for our diligence: change the rigor and manner of our practices or suffer the inevitable and irreversible effects in which our extraction goals become unattainable. If we don't sustain what's left of our resources, nothing will be left to extract. However, we can utilize what’s already here by virtue of nature’s elements. Groundwater can be, and is being extracted, but oftentimes it is contaminated or even illegal in its acquisition (European Environment Agency, 2019). Additionally, it’s unsustainable and ultimately foolish to exploit the nonrenewable bodies of water in Spain for fear of furthering the destruction inflicted upon the environment. Given these dead ends of potential water sources, Spanish agriculture heavily relies on rainfall to replenish bodies of water that supply a vital life source for crops, most notably for olive growth and cultivation. What’s expected of the Earth and its fruits if rainfall and temperatures are made less and less predictable?

There are some benefits to climate change in Spain, specifically agriculture in the North of the country. This area can profit, yielding more goods from plants that historically could not survive in colder areas, and it lowered heating costs due to some cold waves that sweep over the region. Naturally, though, the majority of the consequences of climate change result in negative effects. Indeed, not every country in the World, Europe, or even Western Europe will experience the same effects of climate change.  Specifically, Spain appears to be getting the brunt of the predicted damage. That said, Spain (and other Eastern and Mediterranean countries) will suffer “more severe and more frequent extreme weather events, reductions in rainfall, increases in heat-related illnesses and deaths plus the displacement or decline of certain economic activities… [This region] is expected to suffer more floods and frequent and severe droughts” (European Environment Agency). 

To simplify, the main consequences of climate change that emerge in Spain are more extreme weather, both in the winter and summer, as well as the rise of average sea levels. Naturally, these consequences act as an umbrella under which rainfall, droughts, wind patterns, and more, fit. Labandeira writes, “Temperature increases will be more severe during the summer and inland. Rainfall trends are harder to predict, but both past trends and projections show a reduction in expected rain and lower water availability... Temperature anomalies will become more common with more days reaching maximum temperatures” (2021). Labandeira’s article illustrates a direct correlation between rainfall and agricultural yield. If rainfall is increasingly harder to predict and occurs less often, olive yields (amongst other crops) will either suffer or require the not-so-free helping hand of groundwater or even desalination. 

Spain is the world’s largest producer of olive oil, “accounting for 40 percent of worldwide production” (European Environmental Agency, 2019). Yes, you read that right. The olive oil we all enjoy is likely neither Italian nor Australian. In fact, in all likelihood, they are cultivated, processed, and bottled in Spain. Mark Lowen with BBC spoke with the Head of the Interóleo Factory Cooperative, Juan Gadeo, about olive oil producers’ current devastation. In their conversation, they mentioned that "Shoppers are already paying a third higher than last year - but the drought will increase that even more… With the downturn, we may have to lay off some workers. There's a feeling of depression and uncertainty. Another year like this would be a complete catastrophe" (Lowen, 2022). The story on the ground also tells the same tale, as I had the opportunity to visit just some weeks ago in the south of Spain in a town called Luque. The olive farm and processing manufacturer is called Almazara de Luque. Their sentiment was the same: growing uncertainty in the Earth’s elements that grant permission for crops to be cultivated is a farmer’s worst nightmare. Business must go on, though, and the increased price consumers pay can never go unnoticed. 

Smaller olive yields paired with untouched demand call for higher prices in olive oil. In the last year, prices for olive oil have increased by an uncomfortable amount. In light of this, some consumers substitute olive oil for other less expensive oils, while others just deal with higher prices. Last year, pricing analysts at Mintec expected a reduction between “33% and 38% in Spain’s olive oil harvest.” (Cooban, 2022). Even before this, “retail prices across the European Union shot up 14% in the year to July”. The trend is expected to continue. Manuel Heredia Halcón, a generational olive farmer, feels these effects firsthand from the producer’s side. At the end of last year’s harvest, he had to sell his oil at a 30% increase from the previous year to all his buyers, “including importers in Asia and America” (Cooban, 2022). Further, the Andalusian region of Spain hit its highest benchmark producer price “in over five years” just last summer. Shockingly, prices increased from “€2.19 ($2.18) per kilogram in August 2020 to €3.93 ($3.90) in September 2022” (Cooban, 2022). These effects are not felt only in Spain but also in the countries Spanish producers sell to. In December 2022, “extra virgin oil… reached €5.5 per liter in Italy… [which is] 50 percent more than last year, and nearly double the price in 2020” (Vasquez, 2023). At the firm level, many companies selling olive oil have had to make very tough decisions regarding consumer pricing. Specifically, “CVC-controlled Deoleo, the globally leading olive oil producer’s Ebit margin is set to fall to 3.15 percent of revenue in 2023” (Vasquez, 2023). Such increases are bold, unsettling, and yet entirely self-inflicted. A price doubling seems other-worldly, yet it’s occurring and will continue to increase if climate patterns and rainfall settle back to a “normal” equilibrium. 

Like any crop, there are good and bad years that can be attributed to various factors. What we see in Spain and Mediterranean Europe, however, can hardly be called an anomaly anymore. If you don’t consume olive oil regularly, these increases might remain unnoticed. But, if you’re from Spain or really anywhere in Mediterranean Europe, these radical price increases can alter the DNA of your home kitchen. So, for all consumers of olive oil, and substitute oils for that matter, it’s in our best interest to stop heating the Earth more than we already have. Ultimately, the consequences of our actions now will only worsen. If we’re uncomfortable with what we’re currently seeing, let it be known that our situation will not improve if we do not change. 

References

Associated Press. “At Nearly 117 f, Spain Clocks Provisional Heat Record.” PBS. Public

Broadcasting Service, August 14, 2021. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/high-heat-spain-clocks-prelim-record-of-47-2-c-116-96-f.

Cooban, Anna. “Worst Drought 'in Living Memory' Threatens the World's Olive Oil

Supply.” CNN. Cable News Network, September 9, 2022. https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/09/business/olive-oil-shortage-drought-cnnphotos/. 

Doris, Jason. “One of the Warmest February Days Ever?” One of the warmest February

days ever! WJAR, February 16, 2023. https://turnto10.com/weather/weather-blog/record-breaking-warm-spring-winter-february-providence-rhode-island-mass-southern-new-england.

European Environment Agency. “Climate Change: The Cost of Inaction and the Cost of

Adaptation.” Climate change: the cost of inaction and the cost of adaptation, August 30, 2019. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2007_13. 

Kiprop, Joseph. “The Biggest Industries in Spain.” WorldAtlas. WorldAtlas, May 20,

2018. https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-biggest-industries-in-spain.html#:~:text=The%20country%20has%20Europe%27s%20longest,%2C%20agriculture%2C%20and%20energy%20industries. 

Labandeira, Xavier. “Climate Change in Spain: Friend and Foe–Causes, Consequences

and Response–.” Elcano Royal Institute, December 10, 2021. https://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/en/work-document/climate-change-in-spain-friend-and-foe-causes-consequences-and-response-wp/. 

Lowen, Mark. “Spain's Olive Oil Producers Devastated by Worst Ever Drought.” BBC

News. BBC, August 29, 2022. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62707435. 

Vasquez, Harold. “Olive Oil: Crushed Supplies May Be Here to Stay.” Business News,

February 5, 2023. https://biz.crast.net/olive-oil-crushed-supplies-may-be-here-to-stay/.